Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17616295656127b4d95bb5e22719c0965a5cd21144bc9fbebbf94882ac9fe362
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 65c | 1,349$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.6 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…bc1cbacked Yes | 35c | 1,101$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.62 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 31c | 406.32$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.82 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 31c | 368.53$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.74 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 320.06$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.71 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 235.56$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.77 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 32c | 225.84$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.38 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 62c | 198.24$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.3 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 34c | 131.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 61c | 122.84$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.42 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 64c | 118.62$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 65c | 114.2$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.31 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 73c | 111$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ee…294fbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 45cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 30c | 99.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 122 | 24.6%30 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 20c | 98.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 69c | 96.76$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 42c | 74.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 67.94$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 79c | 64.58$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 39c | 64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 51.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 72c | 47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 30c | 42.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked Yes | 35c | 41.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 79c | 36.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 30c | 36.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 69c | 34.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 72c | 34.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 69c | 29.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 28.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 71c | 27.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 68c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 68c | 24.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 74c | 23.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…83e8backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 71c | 19.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 70c | 15.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.