CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Noir Verse vs mellren - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17a34f036b8dc8b3493a0e7a42df4662d1f1140282e843699a78d49ecf7a1926
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- mellrenof Noir Verse, mellren
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbadb…31a7backed mellren | 67c | 891.85$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.33 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8e…0c69backed Noir Verse | 31c | 804.53$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 286 | 37.8%108 W · 178 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac33…fda0backed Noir Verse | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked mellren | 61c | 223.09$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.94 | 4,754 | 43.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L | -85.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked mellren | 50c | 187.82$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.57 | 7,990 | 50.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L | +180.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75c7…fcccbacked mellren | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 204 | 44.1%90 W · 114 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked mellren | 71c | 48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 1,142 | 54.4%621 W · 521 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…bbf6backed Noir Verse | 35c | 45.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 194 | 68.6%133 W · 61 L | +25.9wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Noir Verse | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 3,267 | 45.5%1,485 W · 1,782 L | -85.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8c…2d81backed Noir Verse | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 505 | 48.1%243 W · 262 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb9…2858backed mellren | 73c | 34.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Noir Verse | 30c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 2,554 | 41.3%1,054 W · 1,500 L | -116.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0c…a691backed Noir Verse | 45c | 28.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 224 | 50.9%114 W · 110 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1342…c430backed mellren | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Noir Verse vs mellren - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Noir Verse vs mellren (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffsmellren won
- Counter-Strike: Noir Verse vs mellren - Map 1 Winnermellren won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.