Asian League · resolved market
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17bcae5c1acad4e9d329e1e3ad2fc8da62eeaa633790b002c76984c0580419ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 56c | 2,104$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,182.88 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 44c | 1,367$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.08 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 57c | 882.91$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.91 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 690.08$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.73 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 503.3$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.7 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.77 | 114 | 58.8%67 W · 47 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Over | 57c | 322.81$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.81 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 43c | 185.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.11 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 44c | 178.04$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.09 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 45c | 65.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Under | 52c | 61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Over | 48c | 61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 191 | 58.6%112 W · 79 L | +19.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 66c | 57.68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 363 | 52.9%192 W · 171 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aef…f8dfbacked Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 49c | 47.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 79c | 47.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 693 | 52.2%362 W · 331 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 158 | 50%79 W · 79 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 43c | 33.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…190abacked Over | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a0…a889backed Under | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd46…983abacked Over | 50c | 24.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c45…88a9backed Over | 50c | 24.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x713e…ae98backed Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…66f6backed Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b90…21b7backed Over | 50c | 23.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Under | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc53c…c32dbacked Over | 44c | 22.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf61d…714bbacked Over | 50c | 22.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6b…b874backed Over | 50c | 21.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6068…66f0backed Over | 50c | 21.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa448…3987backed Under | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb8…77ebbacked Under | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b7…46b9backed Under | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1034…a519backed Under | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9e…f2ebbacked Under | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x401d…759ebacked Under | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…6efabacked Under | 50c | 20.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9325…8ea1backed Over | 50c | 20.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…5f9cbacked Over | 50c | 20.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…d74cbacked Over | 50c | 20.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 55c | 19.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5)Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC won
- Spread: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC (-1.5)Shanghai Shenhua FC won
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.