Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Hegelmann vs. Paide Linnameeskond: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17c59ee2fa69575bfc8e38b2a3666bf34f052e2fb65c0c0c072e8ef453828274
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,369
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,369 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 3,028$2,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.17 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 17c | 2,525$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.71 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Over | 18c | 1,179$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.21 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 27c | 1,098$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.04 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Over | 18c | 510$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.59 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 20c | 480.36$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.13 | 501 | 54.7%274 W · 227 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Over | 18c | 261$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Over | 19c | 260$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Over | 18c | 260$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Over | 17c | 191$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Over | 19c | 126.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 76c | 120.54$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe2…6829backed Under | 79c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 76cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f354backed Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -5.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 78c | 97$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Over | 18c | 78.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 25c | 56.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Over | 21c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Over | 28c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…3876backed Under | 74c | 29.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Under | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Hegelmann vs. Paide Linnameeskond: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Hegelmann vs. Paide Linnameeskond: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Hegelmann vs. Paide Linnameeskond: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Hegelmann vs. Paide Linnameeskond: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Hegelmann vs. Paide Linnameeskond: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Hegelmann vs. Paide Linnameeskond: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Hegelmann vs. Paide Linnameeskond: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Hegelmann vs. Paide Linnameeskond: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Hegelmann (-1.5)Paide Linnameeskond won
- Spread: Paide Linnameeskond (-1.5)FC Hegelmann won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.