Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Hegelmann vs. Paide Linnameeskond: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5426e3903d19967c4d6f009aac8a220d5ac6a7b19d24e4eecc84cecfab98ccb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 65c | 10,186$6,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,594.75 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 36c | 5,207$1,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,888.31 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 33c | 3,074$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.32 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 2,845$1,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,228.5 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Over | 39c | 2,403$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.47 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 48c | 1,878$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.91 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 60c | 1,620$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.46 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 54c | 1,302$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.22 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Under | 51c | 1,209$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.97 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Over | 37c | 1,038$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.13 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6f…1dfebacked Over | 55c | 999.96$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.98 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 68c | 877.98$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.89 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 55c | 574.01$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.94 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Over | 37c | 516$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.93 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Over | 37c | 516$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.72 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 7c | 480.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Under | 45c | 450$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.5 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 27c | 407.41$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 34c | 407.37$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.51 | 501 | 54.7%274 W · 227 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Over | 35c | 381$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.3 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Over | 40c | 353.36$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.52 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 76c | 328.95$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Over | 37c | 257.12$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.25 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 52c | 190.08$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.59 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Over | 37c | 167.65$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.13 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2363…ed78backed Over | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b5…df9bbacked Over | 35c | 121.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Under | 30c | 120$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 31c | 109.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.88 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b42…7cbebacked Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Over | 37c | 78.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 51c | 72.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.12 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 32c | 72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c8…a722backed Over | 34c | 70.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 45c | 68.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +25%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked Over | 36c | 67.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 52c | 62.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 70c | 59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Over | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 33c | 57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Over | 39c | 54.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…4f9dbacked Over | 76c | 48.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 67cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Over | 33c | 39.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Under | 45c | 38.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1c…2679backed Over | 36c | 37.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 75c | 33.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Over | 34c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 266 | 47.4%126 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 239 | 50.2%120 W · 119 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Over | 45c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe79f…0204backed Under | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 50c | 21.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Over | 52c | 19.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -8.6wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x33d2…9ac2backed Under | 64c | 17.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Hegelmann vs. Paide Linnameeskond: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Hegelmann vs. Paide Linnameeskond: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Hegelmann vs. Paide Linnameeskond: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Hegelmann vs. Paide Linnameeskond: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Hegelmann vs. Paide Linnameeskond: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Hegelmann vs. Paide Linnameeskond: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Hegelmann vs. Paide Linnameeskond: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Hegelmann vs. Paide Linnameeskond: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Hegelmann (-1.5)Paide Linnameeskond won
- Spread: Paide Linnameeskond (-1.5)FC Hegelmann won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.