Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17da853a882cd102df149dc2d64eb194a105cfa73c489b62f8dc236ac9e654d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MODUSof VP.Prodigy, MODUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d2b…5271backed MODUS | 67c | 1,009$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.32 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed VP.Prodigy | 17c | 795$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.26 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked MODUS | 80c | 779$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.8 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…77dcbacked VP.Prodigy | 34c | 762.27$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.69 | 292 | 40.4%118 W · 174 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4162…0d18backed MODUS | 72c | 684.49$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.1 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed VP.Prodigy | 29c | 384.63$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked VP.Prodigy | 31c | 378.73$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed VP.Prodigy | 30c | 319.9$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.34 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed VP.Prodigy | 42c | 275.76$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.26 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed MODUS | 61c | 269.71$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.26 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed VP.Prodigy | 28c | 199.74$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.87 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed VP.Prodigy | 43c | 173.9$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.56 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf0…4046backed VP.Prodigy | 37c | 139.74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MODUS | 56c | 123.8$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86bc…efbcbacked MODUS | 58c | 109.58$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 235 | 55.7%131 W · 104 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed MODUS | 58c | 98.77$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked MODUS | 69c | 97.39$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed MODUS | 80c | 84.35$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed MODUS | 69c | 75.67$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed VP.Prodigy | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed VP.Prodigy | 35c | 54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 246 | 36.6%90 W · 156 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b8…61dcbacked MODUS | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 180 | 65.6%118 W · 62 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked VP.Prodigy | 28c | 48.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed VP.Prodigy | 42c | 38.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 175 | 37.1%65 W · 110 L | -13.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed VP.Prodigy | 48c | 34.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc7…62b9backed MODUS | 55c | 31.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 654 | 41.9%274 W · 380 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb64c…393dbacked MODUS | 64c | 30.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 293 | 50.2%147 W · 146 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked MODUS | 60c | 19.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 122 | 63.9%78 W · 44 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x569a…843cbacked MODUS | 72c | 14.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs MODUS - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs MODUS (BO3) - European Pro League Group BMODUS won
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs MODUS - Game 1 WinnerMODUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.