Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cef7fda0805efb669caa8bc6d3c6c28c5b8fbcf061b9341c1bb80f11c7d1b9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MODUSof VP.Prodigy, MODUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4162…0d18backed MODUS | 74c | 2,367$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.96 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed VP.Prodigy | 28c | 1,515$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.62 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2b…5271backed MODUS | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed VP.Prodigy | 29c | 941.27$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.37 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed VP.Prodigy | 30c | 939.04$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.08 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed VP.Prodigy | 26c | 839.1$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.09 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed VP.Prodigy | 6c | 750.31$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked VP.Prodigy | 34c | 621.73$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.87 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2b…2de7backed VP.Prodigy | 41c | 550$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b51…2b54backed MODUS | 58c | 536.14$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.18 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d4…0289backed MODUS | 69c | 530.1$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.98 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6d…9d6abacked MODUS | 69c | 429.41$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.12 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x676f…43c1backed MODUS | 59c | 416.5$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.76 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…f1b3backed VP.Prodigy | 40c | 411.63$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed VP.Prodigy | 35c | 363.94$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.7 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x974a…98c3backed MODUS | 68c | 329.6$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.57 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…77dcbacked VP.Prodigy | 37c | 314.04$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.43 | 292 | 40.4%118 W · 174 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0960…5adcbacked MODUS | 64c | 305.35$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276c…4cc1backed VP.Prodigy | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed VP.Prodigy | 16c | 299.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed MODUS | 70c | 271.63$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.6 | 285 | 44.9%128 W · 157 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed MODUS | 75c | 261.89$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.83 | 189 | 54%102 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed MODUS | 70c | 221.64$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.53 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ef…813bbacked VP.Prodigy | 38c | 220.38$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.36 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked VP.Prodigy | 41c | 218.24$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.71 | 1,197 | 59.2%709 W · 488 L | +63.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ade…fb15backed MODUS | 71c | 207.58$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MODUS | 72c | 180.45$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.53 | 2,367 | 47.3%1,119 W · 1,248 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed VP.Prodigy | 21c | 163.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x12bc…bf2fbacked VP.Prodigy | 30c | 160.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 178 | 53.4%95 W · 83 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0c…3ccebacked MODUS | 63c | 158.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.76 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03e8…d073backed VP.Prodigy | 48c | 136.29$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed VP.Prodigy | 23c | 110.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x597d…b97dbacked VP.Prodigy | 44c | 109.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 205 | 38.5%79 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9233…b93abacked MODUS | 68c | 103.96$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5867…2e20backed VP.Prodigy | 16c | 97.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 252 | 38.9%98 W · 154 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…a2b8backed VP.Prodigy | 14c | 85.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked MODUS | 70c | 83.94$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 907 | 56.1%509 W · 398 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86bc…efbcbacked MODUS | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 235 | 55.7%131 W · 104 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…9482backed MODUS | 62c | 76.68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed VP.Prodigy | 35c | 68.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed MODUS | 68c | 65.35$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…c2cebacked VP.Prodigy | 32c | 59.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked MODUS | 56c | 58.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 335 | 54.6%183 W · 152 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…73edbacked VP.Prodigy | 26c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 372 | 23.1%86 W · 286 L | -38.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked MODUS | 60c | 52.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b8…61dcbacked MODUS | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 180 | 65.6%118 W · 62 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed MODUS | 71c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 302 | 50%151 W · 151 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked MODUS | 71c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed MODUS | 64c | 41.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed MODUS | 71c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…4089backed MODUS | 61c | 39.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…affbbacked MODUS | 70c | 39.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed MODUS | 68c | 37.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed VP.Prodigy | 34c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0744…22d5backed MODUS | 71c | 29.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked MODUS | 66c | 25.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed MODUS | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 360 | 44.2%159 W · 201 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd49…515dbacked MODUS | 70c | 20.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb64c…393dbacked MODUS | 54c | 20.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 293 | 50.2%147 W · 146 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da9…14e9backed MODUS | 63c | 17.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 72cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs MODUS - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs MODUS (BO3) - European Pro League Group BMODUS won
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs MODUS - Game 2 WinnerMODUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.