Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs MODUS (BO3) - European Pro League Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x998727dca354043caa727c83bbcc8c8cd1e34b78e5d0b513f787f065fcae7f01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MODUSof VP.Prodigy, MODUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4162…0d18backed MODUS | 79c | 1,805$1,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.13 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed VP.Prodigy | 22c | 1,407$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.7 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed MODUS | 79c | 833.6$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.19 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed VP.Prodigy | 26c | 348.56$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.46 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed VP.Prodigy | 28c | 330.39$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.85 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8232…d12fbacked MODUS | 63c | 309.28$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.69 | 280 | 62.9%176 W · 104 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed VP.Prodigy | 7c | 290.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed MODUS | 61c | 261.34$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.92 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed VP.Prodigy | 39c | 247.03$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.34 | 515 | 50.9%262 W · 253 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…0539backed MODUS | 74c | 202.7$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked VP.Prodigy | 36c | 184.46$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.29 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked MODUS | 61c | 149.06$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.13 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05d1…2bb3backed MODUS | 70c | 130.61$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.18 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…8263backed MODUS | 77c | 120.57$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MODUS | 66c | 119.5$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dba…368dbacked VP.Prodigy | 17c | 109.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed VP.Prodigy | 36c | 106.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed VP.Prodigy | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 208 | 38.9%81 W · 127 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked MODUS | 68c | 98.08$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed VP.Prodigy | 15c | 96.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed VP.Prodigy | 32c | 95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked VP.Prodigy | 39c | 89.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c4…26f2backed VP.Prodigy | 39c | 86.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed VP.Prodigy | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 122 | 29.5%36 W · 86 L | -18.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…73edbacked VP.Prodigy | 31c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 372 | 23.1%86 W · 286 L | -38.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed VP.Prodigy | 21c | 68.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed MODUS | 62c | 68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…db89backed VP.Prodigy | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 127 | 59.8%76 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…b2bdbacked VP.Prodigy | 38c | 35.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 147 | 62.6%92 W · 55 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked MODUS | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…08f9backed MODUS | 63c | 29.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed MODUS | 61c | 29.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +3.8wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed VP.Prodigy | 38c | 26.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed MODUS | 76c | 15.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs MODUS (BO3) - European Pro League Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs MODUS - Game 1 WinnerMODUS won
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs MODUS - Game 2 WinnerMODUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.