Tennis · resolved market
Tucuman: Samuel Heredia vs Hernan Casanova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17dd2f3b1fe43cf9516b8caadd9937050feca911279fbecaa5a2da2c93434629
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hernan Casanovaof Samuel Heredia, Hernan Casanova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b2c…2151backed Samuel Heredia | 8c | 2,231$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.86 | 389 | 11.6%45 W · 344 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Samuel Heredia | 25c | 1,618$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.79 | 478 | 54.8%262 W · 216 L | +25.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Samuel Heredia | 11c | 896.83$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.65 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Samuel Heredia | 8c | 782$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.56 | 1,228 | 41.1%505 W · 723 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb74…997cbacked Hernan Casanova | 75c | 525.73$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.43 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…e601backed Hernan Casanova | 73c | 389.58$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.19 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Samuel Heredia | 7c | 333.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Samuel Heredia | 11c | 298.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Samuel Heredia | 10c | 284$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ade…ed94backed Hernan Casanova | 76c | 259.74$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.34 | 1,458 | 54%787 W · 671 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Samuel Heredia | 7c | 237.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 2,085 | 44.5%928 W · 1,157 L | -51.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Samuel Heredia | 24c | 180.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…0ca4backed Hernan Casanova | 75c | 162.2$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Hernan Casanova | 76c | 153.28$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 222 | 35.1%78 W · 144 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Hernan Casanova | 75c | 116.2$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Hernan Casanova | 77c | 105$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Hernan Casanova | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 692 | 53.3%369 W · 323 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b6…e0a0backed Hernan Casanova | 76c | 61.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f6…a5eebacked Hernan Casanova | 73c | 30.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 599 | 54.9%329 W · 270 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.