Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will $MARU reach $800M in Q1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1838b867dd98af29cae6de5705f8ffb390372fd9db154b54bcb2afe1adabd106
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,861
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe166…2d8fbacked No | 76c | 566.54$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.55 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed No | 24c | 484.19$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.63 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 74c | 340.81$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.38 | 130 | 53.8%70 W · 60 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2a…662ebacked Yes | 44c | 340$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00c7…a740backed Yes | 76c | 263.6$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ef…1b1cbacked Yes | 78c | 256.92$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc05…f600backed Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf649…21f7backed Yes | 23c | 154.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 14c | 91.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef4…7bc3backed Yes | 39c | 90$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 17c | 69.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84da…0a03backed No | 68c | 66.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…fd17backed Yes | 16c | 63.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd82…d6bdbacked No | 24c | 56.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +277.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed No | 23c | 51.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked Yes | 35c | 49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.30per pick | 55cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will $MARU reach $800M in Q1?this page
- Will $MARU reach $1B in Q1?No won
- Will $MARU reach $600M in Q1?Yes won
- Will $MARU reach $700M in Q1?Yes won
- Will $MARU reach $900M in Q1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.