Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will $MARU reach $1B in Q1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a1e12c2bafd33dc6550c5efc53d9bc0f53097135c005b2c74ac56e6fbebacbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc456…8996backed No | 73c | 3,041$2,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.27 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf1…8277backed Yes | 13c | 1,932$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.02 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce2a…662ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,173$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 40c | 862.33$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbff…6af5backed Yes | 47c | 429.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…f2d7backed Yes | 48c | 417.02$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked No | 16c | 363.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +205.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf96e…c6dcbacked Yes | 38c | 362.68$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd00b…6c00backed Yes | 58c | 346.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…b0f8backed Yes | 77c | 260.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed No | 50c | 173.01$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.11 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ec…04f3backed Yes | 59c | 170.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a22…d031backed Yes | 60c | 166.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd82…d6bdbacked No | 30c | 142.79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +277.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 54c | 128.92$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…653dbacked Yes | 46c | 108.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fb…78b1backed Yes | 51c | 98.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 80c | 97$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6f…64b6backed No | 47c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 58c | 82.62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -8.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9905…85f2backed Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c3…52a5backed No | 55c | 73.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x004f…5b77backed No | 43c | 68.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a3…338fbacked No | 73c | 49.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 61c | 43.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 130 | 53.8%70 W · 60 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 53c | 31.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.30per pick | 55cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…259dbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 54c | 27.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b56…6431backed Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c19…cc52backed Yes | 47c | 23.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ba…f1bebacked No | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will $MARU reach $1B in Q1?this page
- Will $MARU reach $600M in Q1?Yes won
- Will $MARU reach $700M in Q1?Yes won
- Will $MARU reach $800M in Q1?No won
- Will $MARU reach $900M in Q1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.