Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x186ed30e5d1d164052c979e3714546a38693e55ea2a2daedb13e9e00e6328af4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Notre Dame Fighting Irishof Virginia Cavaliers, Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Virginia Cavaliers | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,549.99 | 351 | 51.9%182 W · 169 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 52c | 4,663$2,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,255.18 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 48c | 3,671$1,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,774.84 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…f8fdbacked Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 49c | 2,822$1,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439.45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8c…93cdbacked Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 49c | 800$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Virginia Cavaliers | 51c | 216$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.16 | 658 | 25.7%169 W · 489 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 48c | 199.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 505 | 46.9%237 W · 268 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1487…d443backed Virginia Cavaliers | 52c | 180.77$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 49c | 96.18$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.05 | 583 | 45.5%265 W · 318 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Virginia Cavaliers | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e82…7670backed Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 48c | 67.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Virginia Cavaliers | 52c | 63.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 226 | 56.2%127 W · 99 L | +14.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 48c | 49.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 213 | 47.9%102 W · 111 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec04…8a64backed Virginia Cavaliers | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Virginia Cavaliers | 49c | 30.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 668 | 31.4%210 W · 458 L | -43.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Virginia Cavaliers | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-9.5)this page
- Virginia Cavaliers vs. Notre Dame Fighting IrishVirginia Cavaliers won
- Virginia Cavaliers vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish: O/U 141.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.