Tennis · resolved market
ITF kiseljak: Yaroslav Demin vs Andrey Chepelev
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x187c4e23d3be94b920fea179c1e4926b48c50a76a2b22892f2b8b14250f7f817
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Andrey Chepelevof Yaroslav Demin, Andrey Chepelev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Andrey Chepelev | 69c | 1,613$1,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.95 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Yaroslav Demin | 33c | 1,002$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.52 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc26a…b715backed Yaroslav Demin | 29c | 804.89$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.87 | 573 | 21.8%125 W · 448 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Andrey Chepelev | 74c | 548.92$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.72 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Andrey Chepelev | 74c | 308.61$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.27 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Yaroslav Demin | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Yaroslav Demin | 26c | 225.64$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Andrey Chepelev | 75c | 211$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4232…d505backed Yaroslav Demin | 23c | 171.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 372 | 35.2%131 W · 241 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Yaroslav Demin | 26c | 142.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 878 | 54.7%480 W · 398 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Yaroslav Demin | 26c | 138.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…055bbacked Yaroslav Demin | 26c | 135$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Yaroslav Demin | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 483 | 55.1%266 W · 217 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Andrey Chepelev | 73c | 109.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Andrey Chepelev | 72c | 106$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Yaroslav Demin | 42c | 95.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Andrey Chepelev | 77c | 94.22$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 279 | 40.1%112 W · 167 L | -11.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Yaroslav Demin | 26c | 85.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…3b08backed Andrey Chepelev | 58c | 65.24$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 509 | 58%295 W · 214 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Yaroslav Demin | 42c | 54.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked Andrey Chepelev | 80c | 54.33$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 969 | 45.9%445 W · 524 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yaroslav Demin | 20c | 53.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 221 | 13.6%30 W · 191 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd371…8f17backed Andrey Chepelev | 57c | 52.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.22per pick | 64cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Yaroslav Demin | 43c | 49.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07e2…6099backed Yaroslav Demin | 46c | 42.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Andrey Chepelev | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 940 | 58.4%549 W · 391 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Andrey Chepelev | 58c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Andrey Chepelev | 77c | 28.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Andrey Chepelev | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x326d…3584backed Andrey Chepelev | 74c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 184 | 33.2%61 W · 123 L | -40.4wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Andrey Chepelev | 71c | 14.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ITF kiseljak: Yaroslav Demin vs Andrey Chepelevthis page
- Demin vs. Chepelev: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Demin vs. Chepelev: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Demin vs. Chepelev: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Demin vs ChepelevChepelev won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.