Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. PAOK end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1897a04f97f1937a2c4b2ecf6503daf99346484adb9f41ab704e815162f8441b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 28c | 744$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.68 | 199 | 34.7%69 W · 130 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 74c | 701.16$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.05 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 22c | 520$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.4 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | +12.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 72c | 519.58$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.1 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 80c | 457$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.39 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 51c | 368.62$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.71 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b59…6445backed Yes | 29c | 358$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.18 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd538…317cbacked Yes | 30c | 336.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.17 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 28c | 284.85$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.14 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 23c | 218.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.02 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed No | 71c | 184$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.64 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…cf14backed No | 73c | 179.45$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb957…d44fbacked Yes | 16c | 160.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 72c | 134.57$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.89 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes | 28c | 117.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.86 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.54 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed Yes | 29c | 98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +181.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 30c | 96.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 36c | 85.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.51 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 71c | 84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 80$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 118 | 69.5%82 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked No | 71c | 47.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee09…1199backed No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 81.1%30 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 28c | 39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 73c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 212 | 43.9%93 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…db4abacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…e894backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6981…8ac5backed Yes | 56c | 24.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…a9f7backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5af1…f988backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. PAOK end in a draw?this page
- Will PAOK win on 2025-12-11?No won
- Will PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad win on 2025-12-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.