Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad win on 2025-12-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f45db8b420fc0c7f355173d4dfffd28a1e53a6a404f6aed0bd0bd04cc11aebd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Yes | 55c | 2,894$1,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,593.92 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 59c | 2,094$1,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,235.51 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 27c | 2,050$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.5 | 260 | 22.3%58 W · 202 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 1,605$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.06 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 48c | 1,463$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.45 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 70c | 1,459$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.71 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 80c | 1,108$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.96 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 7c | 805$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.35 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | +12.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 27c | 782$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.89 | 199 | 34.7%69 W · 130 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 75c | 666.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.67 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…28febacked Yes | 42c | 547.23$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.46 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9d…992bbacked No | 46c | 470$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.8 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 19c | 432.3$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.34 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 74c | 420.14$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.86 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x303b…53cabacked Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…2f48backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…39fcbacked Yes | 26c | 382.35$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.41 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 73c | 371.37$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.12 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7f…b2e5backed Yes | 80c | 341.2$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed No | 72c | 294.05$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.33 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc317…4f97backed Yes | 78c | 259$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 75c | 249.8$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae9…74acbacked No | 19c | 218.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.66 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 212 | 43.9%93 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…3527backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 74c | 162.91$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 72c | 149.41$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed No | 68c | 137.21$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 73c | 119.04$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Yes | 25c | 110$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 73c | 105.64$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8729…9a8dbacked Yes | 14c | 102$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.9 | 111 | 30.6%34 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 40c | 87.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb2…fb9dbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Yes | 26c | 78.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 24c | 73.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Yes | 25c | 71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7665backed Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd549…296dbacked Yes | 24c | 66.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb960…8c47backed Yes | 25c | 66.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Yes | 28c | 64.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 147 | 33.3%49 W · 98 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe500…d198backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed No | 75c | 36.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Yes | 68c | 31.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92bf…0297backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa554…e53dbacked No | 75c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d81…5d42backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked No | 62c | 25.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…ddaebacked No | 75c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a17…5524backed No | 75c | 21.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 18 | 94.4%17 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 75cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed No | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed No | 57c | 18.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…9f7cbacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…ea96backed No | 76c | 13.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad win on 2025-12-11?this page
- Will PAOK win on 2025-12-11?No won
- Will PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. PAOK end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.