Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will PAOK win on 2025-12-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a86ba780336f594d6cb06478a1316486e9c11002e347283faea80d7e7fd460e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 48c | 40,000$19,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,200 | 212 | 37.3%79 W · 133 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed No | 52c | 39,956$20,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,178.69 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7256…30c9backed No | 53c | 3,786$2,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,766.23 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…28febacked Yes | 36c | 1,862$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…64e9backed No | 53c | 1,508$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.74 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -37%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Yes | 48c | 1,250$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ab…6ca3backed Yes | 48c | 1,208$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Yes | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…764ebacked Yes | 48c | 883.17$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.92 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3b…be48backed No | 52c | 739.92$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.16 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 51c | 680$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.18 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | +12.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 62c | 651.73$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.5 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 40c | 496.39$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.59 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 47c | 453.01$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.91 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 46c | 423.86$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.97 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed Yes | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked No | 52c | 399.99$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 52c | 294.13$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.21 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 51c | 275$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.33 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 59c | 267.8$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.71 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x154b…4917backed No | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 46c | 244$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.59 | 199 | 34.7%69 W · 130 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 72c | 231.42$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.62 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed No | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d56…d1b1backed Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 17c | 199.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 9c | 195.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 47c | 170.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.34 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b7…2f8bbacked Yes | 15c | 158.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed No | 52c | 151$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.48 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Yes | 31c | 121.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fa…c365backed Yes | 49c | 121.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae9…74acbacked Yes | 27c | 120.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Yes | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb1…fa48backed No | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 48c | 112.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 48c | 104.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 111 | 30.6%34 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…e208backed Yes | 48c | 91.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3289…4538backed Yes | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 44c | 79.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…5480backed No | 52c | 77.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x593b…d19bbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked No | 52c | 65.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb957…d44fbacked Yes | 61c | 65.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 79c | 62.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 39c | 60.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…9c83backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d7…6beabacked No | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 58c | 47.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 52c | 46.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…14d9backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb2…fb9dbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…e730backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa9…7097backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6468…e03dbacked No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff9…0446backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 50cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…c747backed Yes | 48c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…8c58backed Yes | 48c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Yes | 47c | 32.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6061…1ff7backed Yes | 48c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked No | 63c | 28.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb221…5c19backed Yes | 38c | 26.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked No | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…2117backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…a3d3backed Yes | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Yes | 49c | 22.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will PAOK win on 2025-12-11?this page
- Will PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. PAOK end in a draw?Yes won
- Will PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad win on 2025-12-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.