Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Valinor - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x189cbe986d70dcafdd1ba2f91fc664cac59e9800128c7207b378ccaf27942bad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Virtus.proof Virtus.pro, Valinor
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1d4…38d6backed Valinor | 1c | 5,555$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.77 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Valinor | 19c | 3,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1191…dfa6backed Valinor | 16c | 517.84$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.17 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Valinor | 21c | 515.33$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.78 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed Virtus.pro | 79c | 482.95$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.39 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…88d7backed Valinor | 35c | 474.81$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 103 | 34%35 W · 68 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c0…c2a1backed Valinor | 17c | 449.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Valinor | 29c | 343.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3d…e051backed Valinor | 7c | 325$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked Virtus.pro | 80c | 278$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.6 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…e55abacked Valinor | 21c | 250.22$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83c7…4078backed Virtus.pro | 73c | 206.65$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Valinor | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…477cbacked Valinor | 25c | 162.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…7b0bbacked Virtus.pro | 76c | 107.34$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -6.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa420…35bbbacked Virtus.pro | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d9…e0cebacked Virtus.pro | 66c | 73.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked Virtus.pro | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…7d07backed Valinor | 18c | 68.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 254 | 44.5%113 W · 141 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Virtus.pro | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67fe…9859backed Virtus.pro | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Valinor - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Valinor (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Play-In Group CVirtus.pro won
- Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Valinor - Game 1 WinnerVirtus.pro won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.