Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Missouri State Bears (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18a2293f3acf45dff4c7669c25f0747ebe127b14b07ca77b6dd4b04230fb2087
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Missouri State Bearsof Missouri State Bears, Florida International Golden Panthers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,974 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Missouri State Bears | 47c | 4,806$2,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,536.43 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Florida International Golden Panthers | 53c | 3,741$1,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,982.56 | 351 | 51.9%182 W · 169 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Florida International Golden Panthers | 53c | 3,727$1,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,975.1 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Missouri State Bears | 49c | 2,080$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.46 | 279 | 47.3%132 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Florida International Golden Panthers | 71c | 1,067$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.87 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Missouri State Bears | 47c | 950.15$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.58 | 407 | 55.8%227 W · 180 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Missouri State Bears | 48c | 689$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.14 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Florida International Golden Panthers | 50c | 638.59$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.29 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Missouri State Bears | 47c | 421.82$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.57 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Missouri State Bears | 34c | 285.56$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.67 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Florida International Golden Panthers | 71c | 250.58$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.49 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59a8…eb4ebacked Florida International Golden Panthers | 54c | 214.78$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.98 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Missouri State Bears | 47c | 199.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 372 | 46.2%172 W · 200 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Florida International Golden Panthers | 56c | 178.09$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.14 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca4a…338abacked Florida International Golden Panthers | 62c | 175.07$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.24 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Florida International Golden Panthers | 49c | 157.88$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.66 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed Florida International Golden Panthers | 53c | 140.28$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.35 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Missouri State Bears | 39c | 135.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.39 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Florida International Golden Panthers | 69c | 107$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.83 | 358 | 52%186 W · 172 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Missouri State Bears | 48c | 103.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.7 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Florida International Golden Panthers | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Missouri State Bears | 48c | 95.16$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.48 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Florida International Golden Panthers | 52c | 89.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 505 | 48.9%247 W · 258 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc194…f69fbacked Florida International Golden Panthers | 52c | 88.34$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Missouri State Bears | 49c | 80.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 316 | 47.8%151 W · 165 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Florida International Golden Panthers | 72c | 80.89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.34 | 162 | 55.6%90 W · 72 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Missouri State Bears | 36c | 78.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Missouri State Bears | 47c | 76.84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d75…12a6backed Missouri State Bears | 47c | 76.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Missouri State Bears | 55c | 45.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Florida International Golden Panthers | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed Missouri State Bears | 48c | 39.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Florida International Golden Panthers | 51c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 485 | 51.1%248 W · 237 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Florida International Golden Panthers | 51c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Missouri State Bears | 50c | 38.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ca…e04dbacked Florida International Golden Panthers | 71c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…fec0backed Florida International Golden Panthers | 49c | 31.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 249 | 51.8%129 W · 120 L | +19.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f5…8335backed Missouri State Bears | 47c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Florida International Golden Panthers | 51c | 23.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 300 | 50.7%152 W · 148 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Florida International Golden Panthers | 51c | 23.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 229 | 50.7%116 W · 113 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Florida International Golden Panthers | 52c | 23.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Florida International Golden Panthers | 71c | 23.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Florida International Golden Panthers | 51c | 22.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 276 | 50.7%140 W · 136 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…7759backed Missouri State Bears | 53c | 20.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa574…ae93backed Missouri State Bears | 56c | 18.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Missouri State Bears (-1.5)this page
- Missouri State Bears vs. Florida International Golden PanthersMissouri State Bears won
- Missouri State Bears vs. Florida International Golden Panthers: O/U 152.5Under won
- Missouri State Bears vs. Florida International Golden Panthers: O/U 153.5Under won
- Spread: Florida International Golden Panthers (-1.5)Missouri State Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.