College Football · resolved market
Spread: Washington (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18c71e6e7cfbb6b45b35ea4ff2a009f3005c1c31338b66554e237c52b8f4c51a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wisconsin Badgersof Washington, Wisconsin Badgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Washington | 51c | 35,000$17,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,850 | 272 | 46%125 W · 147 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Wisconsin Badgers | 49c | 34,795$17,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,745.45 | 166 | 35.5%59 W · 107 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Washington | 50c | 19,895$10,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,004.32 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7189…b454backed Wisconsin Badgers | 50c | 15,000$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,500 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Wisconsin Badgers | 49c | 4,022$1,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,051.13 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 49c | 3,375$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,724.38 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Washington | 50c | 1,884$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.59 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 1,667$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.82 | 176 | 55.1%97 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Washington | 51c | 1,272$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.61 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 700$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe544…3cfcbacked Washington | 52c | 466.19$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.42 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34b4…0512backed Washington | 52c | 383.1$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Washington | 52c | 350$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Washington | 52c | 350$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Wisconsin Badgers | 49c | 205$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Wisconsin Badgers | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 148 | 36.5%54 W · 94 L | -11.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Washington | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x068f…4594backed Washington | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -28%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12a4…45fabacked Washington | 51c | 100.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed Wisconsin Badgers | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Washington | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e4…85d0backed Wisconsin Badgers | 50c | 96.68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +118.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Washington | 52c | 80.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Washington | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -35%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Washington | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Washington | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Washington | 52c | 26.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa48…1369backed Washington | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Wisconsin Badgers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 188 | 58%109 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Washington | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington (-10.5)this page
- O/U 44.5Under won
- Spread: Washington (-11.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
- Washington vs. Wisconsin BadgersWisconsin Badgers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.