Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC Schalke 04 vs. Karlsruher SC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18d0c82acdd0338fc3b76ad6aaddbe738e6e96bf130157b7d2be2507555fcf41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 24c | 1,405$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.75 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 435.75$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.08 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 80c | 302.01$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.28 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 76c | 239.03$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.28 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 30c | 209.19$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.26 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…c5e3backed No | 70c | 143.93$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 21c | 118.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 80c | 113.26$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f26…b8ccbacked Yes | 20c | 99.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…44edbacked Yes | 20c | 81.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 21c | 57.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 77c | 38.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed No | 76c | 32.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked No | 77c | 29.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…ef55backed No | 75c | 28.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…678cbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 77cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a53…074abacked No | 76c | 24.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked No | 75c | 22.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x40dd…6816backed No | 70c | 22.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed No | 79c | 19.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…c99dbacked No | 76c | 15.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e8…8435backed No | 76c | 15.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x806b…cccabacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…f31bbacked No | 80c | 13.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.67 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…1700backed No | 80c | 13.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.67 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Schalke 04 vs. Karlsruher SC end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-04-05?Yes won
- Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-04-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.