Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x191deade8cd53ba418607776ac71379738490e01d40ebe11f510d2541f521835
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,272
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 69c | 1,842$1,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.54 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 38c | 734.39$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.61 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 26c | 418.54$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 16c | 339.41$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.93 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 71c | 323.17$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.49 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 22c | 289.23$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 72c | 252.79$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.44 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 21c | 225.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 38c | 198.86$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.2 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 172.11$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 140.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 71c | 138.55$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.79 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6c…82cfbacked No | 47c | 136.92$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 28c | 124.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 33c | 124.57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.95 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 107$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 25c | 99.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.97 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…9ebbbacked No | 16c | 85.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed No | 33c | 84.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 23c | 76.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.33 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 26c | 65.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed No | 29c | 64.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 35c | 55.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…5f50backed No | 26c | 48.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 29c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…aa45backed Yes | 23c | 47.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…8975backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 26c | 41.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 74c | 32.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 56c | 29.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 29.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 51c | 28.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 78c | 21.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 79c | 19.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 75c | 19.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 75c | 19.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 58c | 18.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 78c | 15.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked No | 74c | 14.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.