Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc425cc2c6011d93c75e478ea01024c7bf54678e3551114c64378001b9cc4516c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $309,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $310,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $309,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5654…068abacked Yes | 0c | 270,030$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 47c | 415$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.22 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 34c | 299.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed No | 58c | 243.41$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.77 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 36c | 133.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 128.7$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 128.05$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 107.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 31c | 100.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 59c | 97.89$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 48c | 97.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed No | 66c | 96.6$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 39c | 81.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…875bbacked No | 64c | 81.74$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 39c | 70.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 67c | 60.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 62c | 57.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 26c | 56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 47c | 53.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 29c | 52.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 38c | 51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 65c | 44.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 55c | 32.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 44c | 32.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 62c | 31.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec5…f20fbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 50c | 29.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 65c | 29.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 45c | 29.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 28.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 58c | 24.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x713a…5aafbacked No | 51c | 21.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 61c | 20.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…5f98backed No | 72c | 20.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 54c | 19.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 68c | 16.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…aa45backed No | 72c | 13.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.