Tennis · resolved market
Almaty Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Mackenzie McDonald
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19200549921e4d313e97b0cc5f7b0ef60846979d2c9d18d05a9ff776ea41052c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Struffof Struff, McDonald
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,507
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,507 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked McDonald | 38c | 880.16$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.25 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Struff | 65c | 441.16$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.79 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Struff | 37c | 431.38$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.43 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked McDonald | 39c | 262.3$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Struff | 61c | 262.3$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.3 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde44…cb51backed Struff | 26c | 230.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.77 | 134 | 35.1%47 W · 87 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked McDonald | 42c | 214.29$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed McDonald | 62c | 201.17$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.95 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Struff | 58c | 199.29$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Struff | 58c | 172.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Struff | 50c | 144$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Struff | 54c | 114$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Struff | 31c | 101.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed McDonald | 39c | 90$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…7f8bbacked Struff | 36c | 66.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.62 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed McDonald | 48c | 55.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…05f5backed Struff | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cee…bb0fbacked Struff | 60c | 17.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.