Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19b2ade5f51e4b5af069c3bd5431b0e3d17034e5945ecc3c6ad74b1c0ff13bb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9548…655fbacked Yes | 21c | 1,851$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.56 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -59%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcab6…f3debacked No | 79c | 399.58$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.99 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 24c | 300.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.74 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed No | 80c | 250.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.06 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 17c | 199.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed No | 79c | 188.47$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 158.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 28c | 152$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 23c | 133.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 79c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 25c | 114.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc416…3704backed Yes | 21c | 112.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 79c | 110.42$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed No | 78c | 105.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 17c | 83.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…ac1ebacked Yes | 16c | 77.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…1db2backed Yes | 22c | 75.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 75.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 80c | 72$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 20c | 71.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 58.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a01…5d47backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed No | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 41.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…80aabacked No | 78c | 38.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +13.2wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 34.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8e…d3b4backed No | 76c | 33.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 77c | 28.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3144…9076backed No | 78c | 25.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 75cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…1ca6backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +12.8wins | +0.32per pick | 38cpaid | +122%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 69c | 25.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 73c | 22.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaccd…befdbacked No | 80c | 17.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -5.0wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…a400backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.