Asian League · resolved market
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a4a1035d1f7059c03c9fe1020b70b07b786d4880e23e4a0aebe5b299bb32335
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 550.53$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.33 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 79c | 498.39$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.66 | 135 | 63.7%86 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 21c | 299.97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 20c | 262.73$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Over | 21c | 230$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +10.9wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 22c | 199.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 22c | 86.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 80c | 83.35$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 80c | 69.74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 80c | 69.74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 78c | 34.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Under | 80c | 27.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 79c | 25.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a4…d8b4backed Under | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Under | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 107 | 73.8%79 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 76c | 17.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 80c | 14.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shandong Taishan FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Shandong Taishan FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Shandong Taishan FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Shandong Taishan FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Shandong Taishan FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Qingdao Xihaian FC (-1.5)Shandong Taishan FC won
- Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-1.5)Qingdao Xihaian FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.