Lol · resolved market
MSI Play-in: G2 vs. FURIA
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a6ea0e6f0e6b310c948f4c29dec6dccc6170706f3d4f317a7d14d5ae8d58405
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- G2of G2, FURIA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed FURIA | 26c | 8,963$2,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,319.32 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e9…831abacked FURIA | 10c | 6,611$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.09 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed G2 | 69c | 2,840$1,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.8 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked FURIA | 10c | 2,012$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.23 | 924 | 50.9%470 W · 454 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed FURIA | 11c | 1,949$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.41 | 2,226 | 37.5%834 W · 1,392 L | -29.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked FURIA | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 508 | 48.4%246 W · 262 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed FURIA | 27c | 587.4$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.63 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec3…ebc5backed FURIA | 10c | 521.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed FURIA | 8c | 509.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 1,136 | 63.1%717 W · 419 L | +51.0wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed FURIA | 13c | 437.18$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.26 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed FURIA | 38c | 394.74$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ab…84f7backed FURIA | 33c | 357.95$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…b07abacked FURIA | 10c | 326.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 111 | 27.9%31 W · 80 L | -11.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed FURIA | 15c | 270.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 898 | 10.7%96 W · 802 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed G2 | 70c | 259.48$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.05 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd175…bb3abacked G2 | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…db6ebacked G2 | 68c | 230$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed G2 | 69c | 220$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 600 | 53.2%319 W · 281 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…df1abacked G2 | 69c | 217.39$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.39 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked G2 | 69c | 209.67$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.23 | 1,609 | 48.4%779 W · 830 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed G2 | 76c | 199.42$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.54 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaae…ee3cbacked FURIA | 18c | 147.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39a6…5efdbacked FURIA | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f7…0331backed FURIA | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked G2 | 68c | 125$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30dc…f26ebacked FURIA | 12c | 101.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c9…d707backed G2 | 79c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c38…1218backed G2 | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 214 | 48.1%103 W · 111 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9647…c18abacked FURIA | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked G2 | 70c | 73.16$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 661 | 16.5%109 W · 552 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb698…3979backed FURIA | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3d…d8d1backed FURIA | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3600…0e28backed G2 | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.