Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a8afc0fab0d62a52b657419c08c693390060ffd0d1baeda23f2bc83cc8fc3ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tundra Esportsof Tundra Esports, Yellow Submarine
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,594 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Yellow Submarine | 13c | 7,152$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Yellow Submarine | 12c | 5,500$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Yellow Submarine | 16c | 2,166$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.89 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yellow Submarine | 11c | 1,464$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.07 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42ff…8775backed Yellow Submarine | 14c | 1,200$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Yellow Submarine | 5c | 1,014$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3a…780cbacked Yellow Submarine | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55f9…3de2backed Yellow Submarine | 12c | 959$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…a592backed Yellow Submarine | 13c | 950$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…ef07backed Yellow Submarine | 14c | 924.63$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.23 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Yellow Submarine | 12c | 907.04$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.84 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yellow Submarine | 12c | 858.65$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.98 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ef…3413backed Yellow Submarine | 13c | 858$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Yellow Submarine | 13c | 800$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d1…8458backed Yellow Submarine | 13c | 699$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d4…7e8ebacked Yellow Submarine | 13c | 682$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4c…1ccbbacked Yellow Submarine | 13c | 558.34$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Yellow Submarine | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b75…0318backed Yellow Submarine | 12c | 480$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8769…04aebacked Yellow Submarine | 12c | 464.47$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Yellow Submarine | 14c | 411$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.43 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1e…d5dfbacked Yellow Submarine | 15c | 379.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae10…d0d9backed Yellow Submarine | 8c | 370.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 173 | 53.2%92 W · 81 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Yellow Submarine | 15c | 339.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb22d…3a13backed Yellow Submarine | 13c | 302.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 240 | 45.4%109 W · 131 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yellow Submarine | 12c | 273.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ac…f94fbacked Yellow Submarine | 10c | 220$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Yellow Submarine | 12c | 200.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Yellow Submarine | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 208 | 38.9%81 W · 127 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4255…1792backed Yellow Submarine | 13c | 192.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 137 | 31.4%43 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yellow Submarine | 10c | 146.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Yellow Submarine | 9c | 142.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf58…711fbacked Yellow Submarine | 13c | 114.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Yellow Submarine | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yellow Submarine | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb2…5537backed Yellow Submarine | 13c | 91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Yellow Submarine | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e6…64c7backed Yellow Submarine | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stagethis page
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 WinnerTundra Esports won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 WinnerTundra Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.