Stocks · resolved market
Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 50 and 74 times?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1abea748e8ef490de4fb3d1102b3aa8e6a5bdc99c8851c92bb725a374e88d855
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 1c | 1,860$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcd…c2acbacked Yes | 47c | 1,500$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 73c | 1,462$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa84b…5055backed Yes | 21c | 717.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee55…63dbbacked Yes | 30c | 667.41$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +278.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked Yes | 16c | 634.81$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 12c | 446.36$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…a447backed Yes | 16c | 192.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…d319backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005d…08bdbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce97…5b39backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b0…428dbacked Yes | 55c | 43.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked No | 53c | 30.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 50 and 74 times?this page
- Will Roaring Kitty tweet 100 or more times?No won
- Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 25 and 49 times?No won
- Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 75 and 99 times?Yes won
- Will Roaring Kitty tweet less than 25 times?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.