Stocks · resolved market
Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 75 and 99 times?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e51438708ee0136eaeb0139b38eea8e4a37fc2b6ab021897d50f4c6f11c6057
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Yes | 30c | 1,428$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 37c | 840.14$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee55…63dbbacked Yes | 7c | 660.75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +278.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 79c | 625$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.48 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 24c | 609.24$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.31 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 25c | 469.9$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.66 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 17c | 311.74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…5b25backed Yes | 72c | 277.52$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e70…9047backed No | 40c | 243.56$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bae…55b5backed No | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c61…15c0backed Yes | 78c | 200.01$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 56c | 200$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…ad04backed No | 30c | 114.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 67c | 111.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed No | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84b…5055backed No | 52c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 75 and 99 times?this page
- Will Roaring Kitty tweet 100 or more times?No won
- Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 25 and 49 times?No won
- Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 50 and 74 times?No won
- Will Roaring Kitty tweet less than 25 times?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.