South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1adc8c3fee27381069a7d11ed2565b771c9fe9fde24ef44b36886f79403ef222
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Caracas FCof Botafogo FR, Caracas FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bc2…4c80backed Botafogo FR | 66c | 800.7$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.46 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Caracas FC | 36c | 771.27$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.06 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Caracas FC | 36c | 657.09$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.34 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0f…c7e8backed Botafogo FR | 62c | 259.96$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.95 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Botafogo FR | 61c | 240.06$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.6 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Caracas FC | 36c | 207.15$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.88 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…9732backed Botafogo FR | 65c | 188.27$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.37 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -6.0wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Caracas FC | 44c | 179.98$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.79 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Botafogo FR | 59c | 123.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.16 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…9499backed Botafogo FR | 55c | 97.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.51 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf690…6936backed Botafogo FR | 22c | 77.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Botafogo FR | 21c | 52.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Caracas FC | 39c | 50.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x394a…8845backed Botafogo FR | 63c | 38.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Caracas FC | 77c | 31.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad5…86d1backed Botafogo FR | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Caracas FC | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f16…f04fbacked Botafogo FR | 59c | 24.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)this page
- Botafogo FR vs. Caracas FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Botafogo FR vs. Caracas FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. Caracas FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. Caracas FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. Caracas FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-2.5)Caracas FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.