South American Leagues · resolved market
Botafogo FR vs. Caracas FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b2f348e0b9b345581be5c4e1e1589396d0cfab9cedf2c145b82cbc5e8e592f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 17c | 5,181$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.76 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 33c | 1,245$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.95 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 1,204$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.07 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3d…7de0backed Under | 30c | 958$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.4 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 17c | 593.56$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.75 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 20c | 565.35$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.24 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 19c | 543.23$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.87 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 16c | 457.79$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.03 | 337 | 45.4%153 W · 184 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Over | 79c | 406.85$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.47 | 332 | 66.3%220 W · 112 L | +24.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Under | 19c | 295.82$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.26 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 71c | 202.37$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.89 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 16c | 135.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Under | 30c | 134.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 33c | 125.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 178 | 57.3%102 W · 76 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 33c | 125.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 33c | 125.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 281 | 58.7%165 W · 116 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 33c | 125.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 33c | 125.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 33c | 125.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 33c | 117.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 33c | 117.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6e…271bbacked Under | 33c | 117.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 33c | 117.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 335 | 60.9%204 W · 131 L | +18.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 33c | 117.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 33c | 117.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 33c | 117.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…6d55backed Under | 33c | 117.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 33c | 117.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 156 | 54.5%85 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Under | 33c | 117.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 154 | 57.1%88 W · 66 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 33c | 117.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 123 | 61.8%76 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Under | 33c | 117.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Under | 33c | 116.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 122 | 59%72 W · 50 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 79c | 96.84$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…a2b8backed Under | 21c | 91.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 37cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed Under | 21c | 90.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 43c | 90.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 104 | 65.4%68 W · 36 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…f1ffbacked Under | 22c | 86.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a68…22dfbacked Under | 18c | 79.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 64 | 15.6%10 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Under | 33c | 72.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Under | 21c | 66.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x231f…254bbacked Under | 33c | 58.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a98…9b27backed Over | 60c | 58.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…5349backed Under | 30c | 40.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Over | 70c | 38.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x845c…bd64backed Over | 58c | 33.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fed…f6a5backed Over | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Over | 79c | 17.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 286 | 65%186 W · 100 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe65…0546backed Over | 72c | 16.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Over | 76c | 14.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 73cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Botafogo FR vs. Caracas FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Botafogo FR vs. Caracas FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Botafogo FR vs. Caracas FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. Caracas FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. Caracas FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)Caracas FC won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-2.5)Caracas FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.