NHL · resolved market
AHL: Iowa Wild vs. Texas Stars
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ae51179e46eaa8a6ae2b0f79e3c05fd043a914f934b802c3c887bdbcdfd7e47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Iowa Wildof Iowa Wild, Texas Stars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c8…d8a4backed Iowa Wild | 47c | 1,082$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.44 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4232…d505backed Texas Stars | 64c | 816.23$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…9d8cbacked Texas Stars | 50c | 388.33$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.16 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Texas Stars | 55c | 292.96$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.13 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Iowa Wild | 40c | 291.5$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.85 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Iowa Wild | 43c | 270.85$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.38 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed Iowa Wild | 32c | 223.45$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.53 | 279 | 47.3%132 W · 147 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Iowa Wild | 36c | 127.06$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.87 | 253 | 45.5%115 W · 138 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc916…5403backed Texas Stars | 55c | 96.05$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2821…72d6backed Texas Stars | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Iowa Wild | 39c | 48.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…e5fdbacked Texas Stars | 56c | 48.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Texas Stars | 53c | 48.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Iowa Wild | 36c | 43.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Texas Stars | 59c | 42.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 222 | 55.9%124 W · 98 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…e57fbacked Iowa Wild | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7e…a71abacked Texas Stars | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…08f9backed Texas Stars | 55c | 29.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15a2…3715backed Iowa Wild | 44c | 28.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +120%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Texas Stars | 58c | 28.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ad…71acbacked Texas Stars | 60c | 24.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Texas Stars | 65c | 21.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.