College Football · resolved market
Spread: Indiana (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1af0d7101d9475d99488413d09d3d052ad0a47529b1dd4d1c07afffd150765a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Indianaof Indiana, Illinois
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a61…5781backed Indiana | 55c | 18,565$10,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,413.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Illinois | 46c | 14,947$6,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,809.82 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Indiana | 52c | 13,153$6,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,313.52 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f89…0d03backed Illinois | 48c | 11,129$5,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,342 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcc…441bbacked Indiana | 54c | 9,218$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,217.91 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Illinois | 46c | 4,929$2,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,277.97 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa41c…fadebacked Illinois | 45c | 3,908$1,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,758.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked Illinois | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +14.8wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Illinois | 46c | 1,417$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.38 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked Illinois | 45c | 1,400$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Illinois | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Illinois | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Illinois | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 167 | 47.9%80 W · 87 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Illinois | 47c | 988.4$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.55 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb406…4964backed Illinois | 48c | 982.34$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.52 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Illinois | 45c | 938.63$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.39 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | +9.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Illinois | 46c | 688$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.39 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Indiana | 53c | 599.99$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Illinois | 45c | 588$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.6 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +12.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Indiana | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Illinois | 46c | 462$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.52 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x251b…143cbacked Illinois | 53c | 367.22$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.36 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf188…289ebacked Indiana | 53c | 160.36$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…584fbacked Illinois | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7d…332fbacked Indiana | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Illinois | 47c | 57.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Indiana | 54c | 27.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Indiana | 53c | 26.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Indiana | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Indiana (-6.5)this page
- Illinois vs. IndianaIndiana won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.