Tennis · resolved market
Mallorca Championships: Tomic vs. Bautista Agut
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b0bc5bcdc7ac1b7a4d317caf46b7b5374beff8afc5a20c5ee101e15dd783852
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bautista Agutof Tomic, Bautista Agut
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1388…339abacked Tomic | 22c | 2,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Bautista Agut | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x647a…7c59backed Bautista Agut | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed Bautista Agut | 79c | 914.89$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.13 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Bautista Agut | 78c | 893.28$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.52 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Tomic | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Tomic | 14c | 499$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.79 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…5861backed Tomic | 19c | 416.91$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.78 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53d8…2714backed Tomic | 21c | 410$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Tomic | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Tomic | 22c | 253.14$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Tomic | 24c | 220$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…05b4backed Bautista Agut | 80c | 213.57$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.9wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x152b…1d8bbacked Tomic | 21c | 190$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Bautista Agut | 78c | 188$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.46 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Bautista Agut | 79c | 115.11$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…1131backed Tomic | 21c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Tomic | 21c | 93.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bautista Agut | 78c | 85.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…2f6ebacked Tomic | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f7…58dbbacked Bautista Agut | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Bautista Agut | 80c | 15.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Bautista Agut | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.