South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA River Plate vs. CA Belgrano end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b3866ef3bee8bda89f0f02b63a2acfaa8305a0b6af4e9ab60d848cba7a11e9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 73c | 4,813$3,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.25 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 27c | 2,893$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.92 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 30c | 2,400$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.16 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 74c | 1,458$1,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.07 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 68c | 850.87$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.01 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 27c | 546.64$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.59 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb20f…5737backed Yes | 16c | 390.38$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.46 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Yes | 26c | 367.54$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.56 | 191 | 44.5%85 W · 106 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…c2a0backed Yes | 3c | 345.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 302 | 31.1%94 W · 208 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 73c | 343.96$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.87 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 71c | 299.72$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.93 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 73c | 295$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.65 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Yes | 31c | 231.67$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.82 | 188 | 59%111 W · 77 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Yes | 31c | 231.67$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.82 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Yes | 31c | 231.67$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.82 | 281 | 58.7%165 W · 116 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7b…aec1backed Yes | 31c | 231.67$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.82 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Yes | 31c | 231.67$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.82 | 261 | 60.9%159 W · 102 L | +20.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Yes | 31c | 231.67$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.82 | 178 | 57.3%102 W · 76 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 26c | 224.68$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.27 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 196.37$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 73c | 180$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe735…4198backed No | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x666b…d240backed No | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0577…02ccbacked No | 73c | 110$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…8aa7backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5660…1707backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 29c | 99.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…4616backed Yes | 29c | 81.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked No | 73c | 50.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 332 | 66.3%220 W · 112 L | +24.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 74c | 26.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff2…cf14backed No | 75c | 14.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA River Plate vs. CA Belgrano end in a draw?this page
- Will CA Belgrano win on 2026-04-05?No won
- Will CA River Plate win on 2026-04-05?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.