Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 77°F or below on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b3e71993f9b8defe1328516299418ae4f4a677de5f72e75689248f685862ae1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 11c | 564.9$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 15c | 309.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 76c | 251.57$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.39 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 228.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 211.69$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.51 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 8c | 205.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 47c | 203.67$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.06 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 48c | 198.05$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.14 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…ee11backed No | 50c | 164.33$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.7 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 15c | 130.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 15c | 115.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73ae…3b52backed Yes | 41c | 106.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3963…6c32backed Yes | 23c | 106.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 53c | 98.36$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.86 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 70c | 93.25$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 47c | 87.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 71c | 83.57$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked No | 46c | 74.47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 62c | 73.45$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…6fabbacked Yes | 25c | 67.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 65.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 42c | 61.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf8…8dcbbacked No | 74c | 60.97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 34c | 59.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 47c | 56.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 51c | 49.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 70c | 47.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 55c | 46.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 57c | 46.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 78c | 41.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 57c | 40.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 69c | 40.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…cc98backed No | 74c | 40.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 52c | 37.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 35.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74a7…1dc9backed Yes | 46c | 34.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 58c | 34.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 44c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 41c | 26.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 46c | 26.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 48c | 21.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed No | 75c | 19.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 76c | 17.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 66c | 17.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6189…d6ebbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…c718backed No | 71c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 75c | 13.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 77°F or below on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.