TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,661
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,659

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,661 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf1e1…c152backed No9c1,564$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.8120231.2%63 W · 139 L+22.2wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+13.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes38c858.01$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.274,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No36c605.17$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.031,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes32c535.42$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.5673927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No71c362.89$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.8545162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes60c361.83$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.565749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No28c357.59$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No23c354.47$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.41,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No48c353.05$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.0972222.3%161 W · 561 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No19c340.6$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.224,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x593c…2c68backed No30c335.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No12c276.02$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.241,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86c1…9615backed No15c261.6$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.123713.5%5 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-61.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe05f…1fe3backed No73c261.11$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.61540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No15c256$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1288650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes34c244$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.791,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes26c235.05$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.2417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No6c225.72$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.412,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No21c220.83$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3176755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes44c215.56$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.5731062.6%194 W · 116 L+38.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+33.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed No10c214.38$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.521,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x784a…06c3backed Yes67c205.14$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.3134050.6%172 W · 168 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes40c204.44$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.644141.5%17 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes41c191.26$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.061,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No54c173.68$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.414,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes19c170.82$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.579,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No50c164.33$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.93,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cb7…943ebacked No13c161.91$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.674027.5%11 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+139.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdacf…3c74backed Yes52c150$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.653100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+161.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes56c149.33$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.6512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No75c137.99$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.9410133.7%34 W · 67 L-10.9wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-35.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcb3a…d3e3backed No73c136.44$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995786%49 W · 8 L+11.2wins+0.20per pick66cpaid+33.5%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No72c129.99$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.592,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfba1…2769backed No48c129.63$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8210640.6%43 W · 63 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes26c129.07$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.6310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3f5…f4f5backed Yes29c116.39$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.615230.8%16 W · 36 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x81b9…225bbacked No45c116$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.561450%7 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccf8…8dcbbacked No74c114.71$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+28.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73ae…3b52backed Yes34c106.04$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.475738.6%22 W · 35 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes12c102.78$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.828,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe693…dd17backed No39c101$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2927841%114 W · 164 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes50c100.02$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.981,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc62d…5577backed Yes31c99.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.5825038%95 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes54c95.44$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.5199962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaafc…ec67backed Yes75c94.13$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9844757.3%256 W · 191 L+53.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+24%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x3ac0…ace0backed No64c84.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.447463.5%47 W · 27 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes15c83.76$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.5243238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb55c…04eabacked No72c78$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1620172.6%146 W · 55 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick76cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No27c70.27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.732,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5470…0af7backed No74c67.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5032872%236 W · 92 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32e0…3884backed Yes16c66.95$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.9311025.5%28 W · 82 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked Yes75c66.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6725049.2%123 W · 127 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No67c65.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2150373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes78c65$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4513430.6%41 W · 93 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No40c64$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.545,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No69c61.29$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.081,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No20c61.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71b5…6dabbacked No42c60$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.24942.9%21 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eaa…3561backed Yes28c60$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.210636.8%39 W · 67 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2109…58b3backed No50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305337.7%20 W · 33 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf279…202cbacked No31c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.66448.4%31 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No38c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No76c55.31$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9139968.9%275 W · 124 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x23b2…605cbacked No80c50.23$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4011459.6%68 W · 46 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes26c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.52,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes32c49.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.993,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No22c48.58$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.742,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes21c48$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.922,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb65e…190dbacked Yes27c47.86$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.868451.2%43 W · 41 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked No69c47.57$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.021,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No70c46$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.313,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ba4…70c0backed No65c43.54$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No70c42.88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.912,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x152f…c0a7backed No73c41.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.412540%10 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed Yes25c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3040739.3%160 W · 247 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.41,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No55c35.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.84,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No66c34.43$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7399963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82bb…7e81backed Yes75c33.42$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.421566.7%10 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x506c…840cbacked Yes48c33.29$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4215152.3%79 W · 72 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes40c32.94$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.82263.6%14 W · 8 L+5.4wins+0.24per pick39cpaid+75.5%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes45c32.37$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.715,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No57c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.081,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3937…9a0dbacked Yes36c29.78$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes37c29.75$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8434846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc036…2b99backed No74c27.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.15664.3%36 W · 20 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick71cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No66c26.59$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.642,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7299…a763backed No75c26.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7523668.2%161 W · 75 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick71cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8961…ab1abacked No75c26.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7525466.9%170 W · 84 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No70c26.18$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.355,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73e7…8b59backed Yes73c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6843441.5%180 W · 254 L+29.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0534067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No75c24.43$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2788973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No49c24.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.859262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed No70c23.68$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6246743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9151…a93ebacked No69c23.51$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2211164%71 W · 40 L+7.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+70.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa1bd…940ebacked No69c23.2$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1117071.2%121 W · 49 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04ed…8809backed Yes66c22.35$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.56659.1%39 W · 27 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+18.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4ea…7ef6backed No69c22.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.411670.7%82 W · 34 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.