CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: URSA (-1.5) vs Rune Eaters (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b66238e31049c5152600e790b6f98bc54e615250223095ea968e23e6f184252
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ursaof Ursa, Rune Eaters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,753 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3db4…d69bbacked Rune Eaters | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.99 | 753 | 56.8%428 W · 325 L | +48.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed Ursa | 50c | 916$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459 | 418 | 47.1%197 W · 221 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Ursa | 48c | 557.68$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.47 | 659 | 46.9%309 W · 350 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Ursa | 47c | 297.27$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.6 | 836 | 43.5%364 W · 472 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…2877backed Rune Eaters | 55c | 256.04$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.09 | 652 | 54.3%354 W · 298 L | +25.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Ursa | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa62c…a3c1backed Rune Eaters | 60c | 125.47$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.95 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd49d…f05cbacked Ursa | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacf3…7513backed Rune Eaters | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f9…d587backed Rune Eaters | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 350 | 33.4%117 W · 233 L | +22.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf0…b95dbacked Rune Eaters | 58c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0c…3ccebacked Ursa | 40c | 52.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 416 | 40.6%169 W · 247 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Ursa | 47c | 46.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 601 | 43.1%259 W · 342 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8c…2359backed Ursa | 40c | 39.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Rune Eaters | 52c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed Ursa | 45c | 36.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 432 | 39.1%169 W · 263 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…7d23backed Rune Eaters | 69c | 33.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…91ecbacked Ursa | 49c | 26.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: URSA (-1.5) vs Rune Eaters (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Rune Eaters vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group StageUrsa won
- Counter-Strike: Rune Eaters vs Ursa - Map 2 WinnerUrsa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.