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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 7?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,910
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,999

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,910 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes24c250.08$60 inLost-$59.948,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes26c138.56$36 inLost-$35.6310,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xedba…002dbacked No74c114.35$85 inWon+$29.739679.2%76 W · 20 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No74c100$74 inWon+$262,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82e7…f552backed No76c92.91$71 inWon+$21.8635441%145 W · 209 L-19.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes23c84.01$19 inLost-$19.3217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No76c80.54$61 inWon+$19.2810,04444.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L+257.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No77c70$54 inWon+$16.12,43479.4%1,933 W · 501 L+99.7wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes22c64.45$14 inLost-$14.182,23023.8%531 W · 1,699 L+89.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes49c60$29 inLost-$29.382,54845.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L+23.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1cc…6171backed Yes53c56.41$30 inLost-$3038942.4%165 W · 224 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No75c52$39 inWon+$13.055,83660%3,502 W · 2,334 L-112.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes29c49.47$14 inLost-$14.552446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes39c46.61$18 inLost-$18.1952046.9%244 W · 276 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9006…9fb8backed Yes35c45.93$16 inLost-$16.2329337.5%110 W · 183 L+13.2wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes38c39.47$15 inLost-$14.9129941.1%123 W · 176 L+20.8wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No73c30$22 inWon+$8.14,14856.7%2,351 W · 1,797 L+51.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x470b…c331backed No79c29.98$24 inWon+$6.3914744.2%65 W · 82 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2429…02d9backed No47c29.81$14 inWon+$15.817747.5%84 W · 93 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd1b…da1ebacked No79c28.55$22 inWon+$6.0625946.3%120 W · 139 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes50c28.43$14 inLost-$14.221,10251.7%570 W · 532 L+74.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+13.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No78c28.06$22 inWon+$6.253,64953.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L+83.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed No80c27.43$22 inWon+$5.6259144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No61c24.99$15 inWon+$9.752,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No77c23.44$18 inWon+$5.292,21574%1,638 W · 577 L+18.3wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32b9…9a9cbacked No70c20$14 inWon+$664960.2%391 W · 258 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No77c20$15 inWon+$4.61,82662.9%1,149 W · 677 L-8.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb537…14ccbacked No68c18.36$13 inWon+$5.8541460.1%249 W · 165 L-21.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.