CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #16 Group D
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b818ffa03e4fde0002f33455003dbe3e61c1a5f99130b642fc015aacf77a17e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TDKof TDK, Atreides
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Atreides | 1c | 927.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16c…d7f4backed TDK | 78c | 696.21$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.39 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ed…4ec5backed Atreides | 19c | 581.74$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.24 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed TDK | 73c | 535.64$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.62 | 260 | 46.9%122 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cee…b72abacked TDK | 67c | 411.87$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.92 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed TDK | 75c | 402.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.43 | 1,676 | 51.1%857 W · 819 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked TDK | 68c | 367$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.44 | 162 | 35.8%58 W · 104 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…898bbacked Atreides | 27c | 344$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.81 | 129 | 46.5%60 W · 69 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…3206backed TDK | 68c | 311.63$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.72 | 98 | 42.9%42 W · 56 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4255…1792backed Atreides | 33c | 289.9$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.67 | 148 | 39.9%59 W · 89 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Atreides | 34c | 250$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.88 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Atreides | 31c | 225.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.72 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Atreides | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 700 | 38.9%272 W · 428 L | -29.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf33…3773backed TDK | 70c | 172.5$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a41…145fbacked Atreides | 28c | 158.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Atreides | 18c | 152.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 1,779 | 59.1%1,052 W · 727 L | +104.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed TDK | 69c | 102.04$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Atreides | 28c | 100.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 195 | 49.7%97 W · 98 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Atreides | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 246 | 33.3%82 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7129…4517backed Atreides | 33c | 94.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 1,076 | 37.6%405 W · 671 L | +34.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Atreides | 15c | 88.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 698 | 63%440 W · 258 L | +65.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…c55fbacked TDK | 69c | 62.32$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39e9…7d6abacked Atreides | 40c | 61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Atreides | 32c | 43.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Atreides | 27c | 40.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 250 | 45.2%113 W · 137 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3419…e404backed Atreides | 45c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fed…23e5backed TDK | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked TDK | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 126 | 69%87 W · 39 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d2…3c94backed TDK | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d3…cb7cbacked TDK | 55c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb414…9683backed TDK | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33a…e4d5backed TDK | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x891f…88bfbacked TDK | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0142…822ebacked TDK | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69c0…6c89backed TDK | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe16c…8bf3backed TDK | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddeb…8cb9backed TDK | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd92…1be3backed TDK | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…58c1backed TDK | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…11fabacked TDK | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7346…5cf8backed TDK | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: TDK vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #16 Group Dthis page
- Counter-Strike: TDK vs Atreides - Map 1 WinnerTDK won
- Counter-Strike: TDK vs Atreides - Map 2 WinnerTDK won
- Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Atreides (+1.5)TDK won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.