Champions League · resolved market
FC Bayern München leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bd80a5d9e67752da4249eeb4e5f00917922b59e2848a9c1ccad9d796dc0c4ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,698 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2cc…021dbacked Yes | 50c | 2,303$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc699…7961backed Yes | 49c | 2,059$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.52 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 45c | 1,327$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.29 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 54c | 1,267$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.11 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 46c | 1,175$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.71 | 1,959 | 44.1%863 W · 1,096 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 54c | 620$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.8 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 57c | 480.89$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.91 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…764ebacked Yes | 45c | 437.38$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.56 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc82…c7c5backed No | 55c | 330$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4546…a2c2backed No | 55c | 260$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 43c | 250$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.5 | 402 | 50.7%204 W · 198 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 42c | 250$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 489 | 47.6%233 W · 256 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 42c | 250$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 606 | 48.3%293 W · 313 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1f…eb43backed Yes | 46c | 218.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb4…90f3backed No | 55c | 181.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 56c | 140.04$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.42 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Yes | 45c | 130.17$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.17 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc385…8eb0backed Yes | 45c | 110.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.67 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd629…1e72backed Yes | 44c | 81.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 55c | 77.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 260 | 47.7%124 W · 136 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 54c | 71.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 344 | 49.7%171 W · 173 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 43c | 66.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 150 | 38.7%58 W · 92 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92fc…2f25backed No | 56c | 51.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -68%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 44c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb44…71dfbacked Yes | 45c | 44.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…7560backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 44c | 31.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 257 | 35%90 W · 167 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…54f0backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcd…35d7backed No | 55c | 22.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea43…3b88backed Yes | 46c | 22.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Bayern München leading at halftime?this page
- Atalanta BC leading at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.