UFC · resolved market
Phoenix Biel vs. Iron Brit
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c05f06d422d5cf9d21608c90ee0bd8db03e2234bbcaf9a2cf369772defd97de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Phoenix Bielof Phoenix Biel, Iron Brit
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2501…b790backed Phoenix Biel | 35c | 115.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x157e…4da0backed Phoenix Biel | 31c | 64.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +126.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x432b…8fe1backed Phoenix Biel | 25c | 48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1772…c4eebacked Phoenix Biel | 25c | 48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…53e4backed Phoenix Biel | 25c | 47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…cb1cbacked Phoenix Biel | 25c | 46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb9…9be5backed Phoenix Biel | 25c | 45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4268…198cbacked Phoenix Biel | 25c | 45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed11…7837backed Phoenix Biel | 25c | 45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d2…d192backed Phoenix Biel | 25c | 44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd087…3c3ebacked Phoenix Biel | 25c | 43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8226…5a5dbacked Phoenix Biel | 25c | 42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe6…52d1backed Phoenix Biel | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Iron Brit | 68c | 29.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…d8d9backed Iron Brit | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11c4…8b0dbacked Iron Brit | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe51d…1638backed Iron Brit | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf719…7ba4backed Iron Brit | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc14…cd69backed Iron Brit | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66b2…7280backed Iron Brit | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x254d…8066backed Iron Brit | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3f…979dbacked Iron Brit | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb70…5b4bbacked Iron Brit | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc26e…9687backed Iron Brit | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfac8…1973backed Iron Brit | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167c…9a5dbacked Iron Brit | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1992…f6cbbacked Iron Brit | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x701e…b370backed Iron Brit | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…a1b6backed Iron Brit | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2364…609dbacked Iron Brit | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a1…a414backed Iron Brit | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292f…de7dbacked Iron Brit | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c59…4d46backed Iron Brit | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b62…edeabacked Iron Brit | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe388…333abacked Iron Brit | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bf…f91bbacked Iron Brit | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2018…94d6backed Iron Brit | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d06…8a68backed Iron Brit | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5582…c8dfbacked Iron Brit | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33a3…4dbcbacked Iron Brit | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…f8e8backed Iron Brit | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ce…e7c1backed Iron Brit | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe417…aadabacked Iron Brit | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16a3…e1aabacked Iron Brit | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ce…c1bdbacked Iron Brit | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0c…1e88backed Iron Brit | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb142…6248backed Iron Brit | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…b8fabacked Iron Brit | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27d4…2e78backed Iron Brit | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42de…3fbcbacked Iron Brit | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf154…ab35backed Iron Brit | 75c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0a…8e9bbacked Iron Brit | 75c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d2…53aebacked Iron Brit | 75c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1398…b9aebacked Iron Brit | 75c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb7…74d0backed Iron Brit | 75c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x344a…3eccbacked Iron Brit | 75c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x531a…0cebbacked Iron Brit | 75c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Phoenix Biel vs. Iron Britthis page
- Bitlord vs. Korean JewBitlord won
- Grimace vs. DoubleYouGrimace won
- My Mate Nate vs. Dawood SavageMy Mate Nate won
- NFT Kid vs. White Boy SummerNFT Kid won
- sugaR vs. Jack.PoorsugaR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.