World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C or higher on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c07448b8d07fb483a2770cc4040d58e01f4f38a2926e2ceeee090ba60362127
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8907…d8e6backed No | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…db2ebacked No | 2c | 1,216$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 79c | 512.9$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.76 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes | 77c | 407.28$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.29 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 15c | 342.86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.16 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 24c | 331.62$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…70adbacked No | 25c | 312.83$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 77c | 272.05$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 21c | 259.91$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 15c | 189.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 79c | 186.81$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 13c | 149.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +46%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 79c | 119.3$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7754…278dbacked No | 17c | 113.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…0736backed No | 16c | 112.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 74c | 109.58$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 78c | 98.89$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 24cpaid | +695.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…8975backed No | 21c | 97.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 17c | 95.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 20c | 94.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…096fbacked No | 13c | 90.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 20c | 87.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa480…7205backed Yes | 78c | 62.69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 42c | 59.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.26per pick | 47cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc167…b080backed No | 34c | 54.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 25c | 52.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 70c | 35.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 78c | 29.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ba…21a7backed Yes | 50c | 28.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40ea…6523backed Yes | 75c | 25.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd731…4199backed Yes | 73c | 21.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3e…b127backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843d…89bcbacked Yes | 79c | 19.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 76c | 19.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed Yes | 78c | 18.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 64c | 18.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x613f…6463backed No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C or higher on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.