Australian A League · resolved market
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c0f4baeaa87d7988c912b74dd1ece4750e960ad72d01b77baeb33b6ff6fd6cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 65c | 633.4$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.36 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Over | 21c | 328$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 35c | 272$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Under | 59c | 188$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.08 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +63%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Under | 59c | 157$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.37 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Under | 59c | 123$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Under | 59c | 119$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.79 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -45%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Under | 60c | 110$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 33cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Under | 59c | 108$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Under | 60c | 99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.31per pick | 42cpaid | +113.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Under | 59c | 82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Under | 59c | 76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 50cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5f…99d3backed Over | 41c | 67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7665backed Under | 59c | 65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 40c | 63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed Over | 41c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Under | 59c | 48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…b6a4backed Over | 41c | 46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96d2…dc9bbacked Over | 41c | 44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52cc…9998backed Over | 41c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d9…6febbacked Over | 41c | 41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9a3ebacked Over | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…e3a4backed Over | 41c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a6…bbd5backed Over | 41c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Over | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 60cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…e3c9backed Over | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…42f6backed Over | 41c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…2f86backed Over | 41c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…8b4bbacked Over | 41c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 40c | 33.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad2…d17fbacked Over | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…5bc4backed Over | 40c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 61cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…92e0backed Over | 41c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb736…1946backed Over | 41c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed Over | 41c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9430…97cebacked Over | 41c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…6746backed Over | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 64c | 19.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-1.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.