Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayern München end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c436194159f817e8366bbc86150a2cd460a17cc04c9dcad9fc6b1cd4dde21fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 15c | 4,209$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.12 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00e…ea73backed Yes | 5c | 1,167$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 68c | 969.98$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.1 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…47c8backed Yes | 20c | 954$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…fabcbacked Yes | 38c | 650$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.9 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…1981backed Yes | 19c | 600$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa125…7cdfbacked Yes | 19c | 472.67$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 20c | 463$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 8c | 369.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed No | 80c | 360$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 16c | 245.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f9…fdb9backed Yes | 8c | 178.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e9…5e83backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31eb…ba4bbacked Yes | 38c | 133.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -75%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…9727backed Yes | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 16c | 107$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d4…770ebacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -4.5wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Yes | 19c | 105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8985…2e25backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…38cbbacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7543…1852backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed No | 75c | 31.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed No | 80c | 19.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 116 | 61.2%71 W · 45 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayern München end in a draw?this page
- Will Bayern München win on 2025-12-06?Yes won
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-12-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.