TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Bayern München win on 2025-12-06?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$463,997
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$602,754

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $463,997 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 442 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb7a8…14f8backed Yes66c75,949$50,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,949.18475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No31c45,053$13,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,764.913,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked Yes65c40,000$26,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,0004443.2%19 W · 25 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No33c37,427$12,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,242.191,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed No35c33,498$11,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,724.395954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes62c25,000$15,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,50011445.6%52 W · 62 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed No38c22,368$8,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,499.929455.3%52 W · 42 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x37e0…024ebacked No35c17,586$6,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,155.173534.3%12 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No25c16,928$4,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,26653645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked No34c14,705$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.77062.9%44 W · 26 L+8.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked No35c12,651$4,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,427.785052%26 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes65c11,056$7,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,844.2515134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7104…afefbacked Yes63c9,513$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,512.511346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d80…cd30backed Yes75c9,290$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,289.543100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Yes65c6,707$4,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,347.442065%13 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No27c5,093$1,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,362.692,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No31c4,920$1,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,522.6975142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ae5…8342backed Yes62c4,729$2,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,796.96742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked No33c4,700$1,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,572.282556%14 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes75c4,560$3,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.6622332.3%72 W · 151 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7865…4af9backed No38c4,530$1,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,710.864524.4%11 W · 34 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8245…4f87backed Yes76c4,226$3,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,010.271181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick66cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed No35c3,924$1,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,355.1314254.2%77 W · 65 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No34c3,862$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,319.8178248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5993…33a2backed Yes62c3,226$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,225.81955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed No38c3,060$1,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,162.647447.3%35 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Yes64c3,000$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0809854.1%53 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d5c…aad0backed Yes68c2,946$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c1…692cbacked Yes62c2,903$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,103.232564%16 W · 9 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+35.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xec3b…3418backed Yes74c2,880$2,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No37c2,631$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.6151136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed No35c2,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.993327.3%9 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed No34c1,867$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.6523046.5%107 W · 123 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd520…7e15backed Yes65c1,631$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73c5…2f80backed Yes63c1,560$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.716051.7%31 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x00cf…5120backed Yes65c1,538$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.46366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Yes75c1,500$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes65c1,500$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52012651.6%65 W · 61 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked No34c1,452$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.8314846.6%69 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed No25c1,416$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.725444.4%24 W · 30 L-5.5wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-23.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed No36c1,339$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.1156547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0909…833dbacked Yes75c1,333$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes75c1,320$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.66347.6%30 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed No34c1,308$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.5544749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe045…c149backed No33c1,279$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.18650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed No40c1,250$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50024050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed No37c1,219$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.6819544.6%87 W · 108 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Yes62c1,216$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.134264.3%27 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed No36c1,181$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.2414756.5%83 W · 64 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked No35c1,140$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.992250%11 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dcf…75b9backed Yes77c1,103$852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed No35c1,100$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38716850%84 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Yes62c1,081$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.1419347.2%91 W · 102 L-0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x137b…aa61backed Yes62c1,003$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.132100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+65.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes62c1,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3805635.7%20 W · 36 L-6.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe4a2…36f2backed Yes62c1,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc04…f726backed Yes62c1,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3801266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x74e1…e6a2backed No40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked No27c1,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2701723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-27.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked No39c998.43$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.392254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed Yes61c968.37$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.661729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc2a2…d5e9backed Yes76c921.82$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.242100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x53b8…0ee6backed Yes67c895.89$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.89366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+35.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x639d…4777backed Yes62c879.03$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.03683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick61cpaid+44.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0594…6d4dbacked Yes67c866.46$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.352100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed No37c855.81$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.9676234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x031d…db9dbacked Yes62c806.45$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.45475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+26.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed Yes66c800$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27210057%57 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0cc…1934backed No33c769.7$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3212…634ebacked No35c700$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2451947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+48.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2011…f296backed Yes66c649.99$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x646a…3dafbacked Yes75c600$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1502100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed No34c594.65$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.186459.4%38 W · 26 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No35c539.97$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.9956951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02fb…0a53backed Yes74c537.13$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.13475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No35c512.39$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.877129.6%21 W · 50 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x919d…60e1backed No36c500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+27%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes62c483.87$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.879951.5%51 W · 48 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked No10c479.3$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2423842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa125…7cdfbacked Yes66c471.87$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked No33c465.09$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.6110128.7%29 W · 72 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc449…2239backed Yes65c461.54$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No21c455.58$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.916542.4%70 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2c3…0e32backed Yes74c405.41$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.413100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+89.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9416…9d2cbacked Yes65c403.1$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.08450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked No35c400$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1408251.2%42 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cc…8026backed Yes64c390.63$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.636350.8%32 W · 31 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb9ed…617ebacked Yes65c384.62$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.621450%7 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x045d…d649backed Yes65c384.62$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.62520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-69.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3bf…762dbacked Yes74c380$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.353773%27 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+6.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaeed…074bbacked No39c374$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.863943.6%17 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe378…4cecbacked Yes60c359.25$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97c0…a76cbacked Yes67c358.21$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86fe…025cbacked Yes69c336.58$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.78666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcae3…1839backed Yes62c322.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.58366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0585…5fa1backed No36c319.44$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f5b…d411backed Yes78c313.96$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f04…5fc4backed Yes64c313$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x51f0…5c1cbacked Yes77c308.99$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.07250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2518…45f4backed Yes65c307.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.693100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+106.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.