Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-12-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ccf4ba9db3e7e3f1511a2ad3b8c8a2615a055294dcf8f4ec83d42ad3589e774
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 9c | 5,330$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.74 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 17c | 3,688$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.93 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 18c | 3,050$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 16c | 2,184$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.09 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 15c | 1,490$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.52 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 19c | 1,228$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.01 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 16c | 1,105$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.62 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76da…30a2backed Yes | 14c | 1,101$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 17c | 1,066$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.21 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…01ebbacked Yes | 17c | 1,041$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.18 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 16c | 1,011$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.74 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…5471backed No | 80c | 913.77$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.75 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 11c | 863.75$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.33 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Yes | 15c | 714.62$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.98 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 11c | 442.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Yes | 17c | 427.58$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.69 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +5.4wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5b…aeecbacked Yes | 12c | 410.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 79c | 358.55$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.3 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4caf…6de9backed Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc07c…c4b7backed Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1147…da78backed Yes | 15c | 250.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 12c | 216.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…47c8backed Yes | 17c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…e208backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76ba…13d3backed Yes | 13c | 166.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked Yes | 20c | 148.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 18c | 135$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 10c | 125$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 122$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8985…2e25backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1158…9973backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Yes | 15c | 87.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e8…8c4cbacked Yes | 19c | 78.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4912…09ddbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-12-06?this page
- Will Bayern München win on 2025-12-06?Yes won
- Will VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayern München end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.