TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Lakers (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Lakersof Lakers, Kings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,694
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,787

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,694 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Kings48c6,511$3,126 inLost-$3,126.162,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Lakers52c5,373$2,785 inWon+$2,588.4769852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Kings50c1,852$918 inLost-$918.298,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Lakers51c1,653$843 inWon+$8103237.5%12 W · 20 L-3.8wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-19%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa216…179bbacked Lakers53c1,325$702 inWon+$622.534949%24 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Lakers44c1,030$455 inWon+$574.9585742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7a7…d3abbacked Kings3c1,000$30 inLost-$3020034%68 W · 132 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+28.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Kings59c707$417 inLost-$417.138843.2%38 W · 50 L-6.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Kings48c577.12$278 inLost-$278.089,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3269…d5b3backed Kings48c575$276 inLost-$2762157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5877…4332backed Lakers52c575$299 inWon+$2762050%10 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde91…f20abacked Lakers33c550.67$183 inWon+$367.4915745.2%71 W · 86 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02f0…57b6backed Kings67c313.6$210 inLost-$210.112853.6%15 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+18.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Lakers44c265.92$117 inWon+$148.9247144.2%208 W · 263 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Lakers52c193.77$101 inWon+$93.0176249.5%377 W · 385 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Kings48c174.24$83 inLost-$83.4171052.1%370 W · 340 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Lakers35c95.23$34 inWon+$61.52,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Lakers31c76.1$24 inWon+$52.161,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b7f…8d53backed Kings48c41.67$20 inLost-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca38…460bbacked Kings65c34$22 inLost-$22.13545.7%16 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+10.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1c0…9279backed Lakers53c28.98$15 inWon+$13.62837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…7bfabacked Lakers53c28.34$15 inWon+$13.322955.2%16 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xffe1…3559backed Lakers53c28.3$15 inWon+$13.31020%2 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-62.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbaa1…b59ebacked Lakers53c27.57$15 inWon+$12.96560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e0f…7037backed Lakers53c25.91$14 inWon+$12.183243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51d9…cb1abacked Kings55c22.33$12 inLost-$12.2613743.8%60 W · 77 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x381b…8049backed Lakers53c20.98$11 inWon+$9.86450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c14…4573backed Lakers53c20.75$11 inWon+$9.75955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6366…8ddebacked Kings67c20.48$14 inLost-$13.721330.8%4 W · 9 L-3.7wins-0.28per pick59cpaid-48%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1407…ad3dbacked Lakers53c19.26$10 inWon+$9.05450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.