Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c567169cd5581c9d34833acec9d9f696b98456c01f06d850596b4669a13a2a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PARIVISIONof Team Yandex, PARIVISION
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,746
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,746 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Team Yandex | 31c | 4,483$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked PARIVISION | 70c | 2,403$1,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.33 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed PARIVISION | 70c | 1,828$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.37 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf206…df39backed PARIVISION | 71c | 1,539$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.49 | 169 | 63.3%107 W · 62 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Team Yandex | 30c | 1,330$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Team Yandex | 32c | 1,052$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.23 | 303 | 57.1%173 W · 130 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked PARIVISION | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 268 | 46.6%125 W · 143 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked PARIVISION | 68c | 999.98$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.99 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked PARIVISION | 69c | 887.99$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.28 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Team Yandex | 30c | 815.45$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.68 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b17…d36dbacked Team Yandex | 30c | 400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Team Yandex | 29c | 399.98$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.99 | 117 | 33.3%39 W · 78 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed PARIVISION | 67c | 393.88$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.98 | 656 | 47.3%310 W · 346 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Team Yandex | 28c | 300$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 334 | 45.2%151 W · 183 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked PARIVISION | 67c | 262.88$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.75 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe872…819abacked Team Yandex | 30c | 215$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 223 | 40.4%90 W · 133 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc182…1339backed Team Yandex | 33c | 213.4$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 288 | 46.5%134 W · 154 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed PARIVISION | 68c | 203.06$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.14 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked PARIVISION | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5149…3336backed PARIVISION | 71c | 199.72$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.92 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…42e4backed Team Yandex | 30c | 183.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98ba…4212backed Team Yandex | 33c | 151.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…eedebacked PARIVISION | 67c | 146.67$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9235…3fbdbacked PARIVISION | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 151 | 67.5%102 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked PARIVISION | 70c | 124.89$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed PARIVISION | 70c | 116$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Team Yandex | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 267 | 41.9%112 W · 155 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…737abacked Team Yandex | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x101f…b386backed Team Yandex | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 321 | 54.8%176 W · 145 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Team Yandex | 33c | 66.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 222 | 60.4%134 W · 88 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a85…ff94backed Team Yandex | 32c | 57.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 293 | 52.9%155 W · 138 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0b…2debbacked PARIVISION | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 195 | 47.7%93 W · 102 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c62…ca89backed Team Yandex | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Team Yandex | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Team Yandex | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Team Yandex | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Team Yandex | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dc…4f6ebacked Team Yandex | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e8…e69cbacked PARIVISION | 71c | 36.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ae…18a2backed PARIVISION | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a90…56b5backed Team Yandex | 32c | 30.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed PARIVISION | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9dff…7fecbacked PARIVISION | 71c | 28.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…51f3backed PARIVISION | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs PARIVISION (BO3) - Esports World Cup PlayoffsPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs PARIVISION - Game 1 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs PARIVISION - Game 2 WinnerTeam Yandex won
- First Blood in Game 2?PARIVISION won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.