Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1441e212acd2f72355a8c9d6c26ac29df3374bbe26531c5b93e2a79d0beec305
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,358
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,358 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Under | 52c | 3,230$1,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,664.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Over | 48c | 3,191$1,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,659.32 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f6…a5d3backed Under | 52c | 2,155$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Under | 55c | 1,120$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.13 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d5…11fcbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Under | 51c | 699.95$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.98 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0f…d336backed Over | 49c | 404.72$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +130.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94cb…64e3backed Under | 50c | 376.3$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.15 | 188 | 30.9%58 W · 130 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5149…3336backed Over | 49c | 375.92$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.72 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…1ce7backed Over | 49c | 334$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.38 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5537…f9c8backed Over | 48c | 331.52$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.39 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a66…fa83backed Over | 49c | 271.14$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -66%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Under | 53c | 260$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.57 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Under | 56c | 225$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.98 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b8e0backed Over | 49c | 193.88$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…fc98backed Over | 49c | 184.71$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.2 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…42e4backed Over | 49c | 183.67$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.67 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Under | 57c | 174.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.58 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f90…4c92backed Over | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 141 | 36.9%52 W · 89 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Over | 54c | 159.86$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.87 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…3cedbacked Over | 55c | 144.36$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.01 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 49c | 140$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Under | 45c | 139.36$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.71 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Over | 52c | 127.75$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.3 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24b…5142backed Over | 49c | 99.18$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.58 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +8.6wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Under | 49c | 94.51$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Under | 49c | 91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 48c | 84.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Under | 50c | 82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 196 | 43.9%86 W · 110 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…af07backed Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Over | 33c | 55.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…2561backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 316 | 59.8%189 W · 127 L | +18.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6f…1284backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 79 | 64.6%51 W · 28 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd6…4ebfbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66b8…9240backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e8…e69cbacked Over | 51c | 35.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…b6ffbacked Under | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Under | 34c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 50c | 25.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 84 | 45.2%38 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 42c | 25.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e69…2650backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf59e…f0bfbacked Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs PARIVISION (BO3) - Esports World Cup PlayoffsPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs PARIVISION - Game 1 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs PARIVISION - Game 2 WinnerTeam Yandex won
- First Blood in Game 2?PARIVISION won
- Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5)PARIVISION won
- Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.